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North Hempstead, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Munsey Park NY
National Weather Service Forecast for: Munsey Park NY
Issued by: National Weather Service New York, NY
Updated: 2:08 pm EDT Jul 8, 2025
 
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall.  Partly sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 102. Southwest wind around 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Heavy Rain

Tonight

Tonight: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11pm and 2am, then a slight chance of showers after 2am.  Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Showers
Likely then
Chance
T-storms
Wednesday

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 97. West wind around 6 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Mostly Sunny
then Slight
Chance
T-storms
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a chance of showers between 2am and 5am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5am.  Increasing clouds, with a low around 72. South wind 3 to 7 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance
Showers

Thursday

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. South wind 5 to 8 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers
Likely

Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 11pm, then a chance of showers after 11pm.  Cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers
Likely

Friday

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 85.
Partly Sunny
then Chance
T-storms
Friday
Night
Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.
Chance
T-storms then
Mostly Cloudy
Saturday

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Mostly Sunny

Hi 94 °F Lo 73 °F Hi 90 °F Lo 72 °F Hi 85 °F Lo 71 °F Hi 85 °F Lo 71 °F Hi 87 °F

Heat Advisory
Air Quality Alert
Flood Watch
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
 

This Afternoon
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Partly sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 102. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11pm and 2am, then a slight chance of showers after 2am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Wednesday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 97. West wind around 6 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a chance of showers between 2am and 5am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 72. South wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. South wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 11pm, then a chance of showers after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.
Friday Night
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.
Saturday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Saturday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Sunday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 87.
Sunday Night
 
A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.
Monday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 88.
Monday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Tuesday
 
Partly sunny, with a high near 89.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Munsey Park NY.

Weather Forecast Discussion
460
FXUS61 KOKX 081951
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front stalls near the forecast area through Thursday night,
then either remains stalled to the south Friday into Saturday or
washes out altogether. Another frontal system may pass to the north
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A slowly moving cold front will stall over the area tonight,
providing convergence and lift needed to continue showers and
thunderstorms through the first half of tonight. The three main
threats with this frontal boundary are flooding, severe
thunderstorms and continued heat.

Regarding the flooding; a Flood Watch remain in effect for the
entire area through 2 am. The stalled boundary may allow for some
training with parallel motion of storms to the frontal boundary.
Additionally, sea breezes across Long Island and southern CT will
allow for convergence and lift there as well, out ahead of the
frontal boundary, with storms also moving parallel to the sea
breezes. The morning sounding showed 2.00" of PWAT, which is near
the max of the local climatology for today, and NWP models showing
2" to 2.5" PWATs into tonight all indicating that upwards of 2" of
rain could fall in the heaviest showers/thunderstorms. Also, surface
dew points are well into the 70s region wide. Instability on the
order of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg and deep warm cloud layer also point to
flooding. Storms seem to be moving at a reasonable speed to preclude
flooding due to slow movers, but again, training is possible, and
will have to watch for outflows from previous storms interacting
with other boundaries, such as other storms or the sea breezes. CAMs
are still showing some uncertainty with timing, as the 3km NAM Nest
is showing the bulk of the heavy rain moving through as late as 11
pm tonight for western portions of the forecast area. Thus, there
continues to be the potential for the Flood Watch to be extended in
time overnight.

Regarding the severe threat; a Severe Thunderstorm watch was issued
for NE NJ, NYC, the Lower Hudson Valley, and SW CT until 9 pm. A
couple of severe thunderstorms have already been issued, and with
the aforementioned features for convergence and lift, high moisture
content of the atmosphere, and modest instability, the severe threat
will continue tonight. The main threat with these storms will be
damaging winds, with gusts up to 65 mph. An isolated gust up to 70
mph cannot be ruled out. With warm rain process, hail formation is
less likely in this environment, but cannot be completely ruled out.
However, it will likely remain under an inch in diameter for most,
if not all storms.

Regarding the heat; Heat Advisories remain in effect through 8 pm
this evening. Observations around NYC are approaching 100 degrees
heat indices as of 2 pm, 100-105 for NE NJ and portion of S CT, and
95-100 for most everywhere else. As cloud cover increases from the
storms and especially as we approach sunset, these conditions will
improve, however it will still be warm and humid overnight. PWATs,
although not forecast to be as high as tonight, will still be
between 1.5" to 2.5" during this period, so the threat for flooding
is still there, but lower than tonight. The Weather Prediction
Center has placed the entire area in a marginal threat for excessive
rainfall through 12Z Friday.

With the loss of the daytime heating and instability, storms should
weaken after 10 pm, and the threat for flooding after 2 am. Showers
and thunderstorm activity continues to taper off through daybreak
Wednesday.

Patchy fog is possible, mainly over eastern areas thereafter through
sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Somewhat cooler temperatures on Wednesday and lower dew points may
preclude the need for a Heat Advisory. Highs are expected to be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, with index values approaching the mid
90s. So, it is marginal, but Heat Advisories may need to be issued
once again for Wednesday. Temperatures cool slightly more by
Thursday.

With the cold front in the vicinity, shower and thunderstorms are in
the forecast for both days, though just a slight chance for
Wednesday and better chances for Thursday, as weak areas of low
pressure ride along the boundary and aid in any weak lift that might
be present with the front. SPC has a small portion of the area in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, which includes southern
portions of NE NJ and SW portions of SW portions of NYC. Flooding
will also continue to be a concern as the air mass really does not
change much and very humid conditions remain in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A stalling front eventually pushes south of the area Thursday night
as a midlevel shortwave and upper low exits northeast in Canada.
This front will then either remain stalled nearby or washout
altogether into the weekend. At the same time, most guidance show a
weak ridge building Friday into Saturday. Unfortunately, global
guidance really varies on solutions Sunday into Monday. Some bring
another frontal system Sunday into Monday night to our north while
others keep this system too far north to impact us, opting for
building high pressure at the surface instead.

Generally southerly flow is expected for most of the long-term
period. This should keep dewpoints and atmospheric moisture high and
continue chances for daily showers and thunderstorms Friday through
Monday. Mainly slight chance POPs east with low-end chance POPs west
where daily instability from daytime heating could be stronger.

Temperatures through the long-term period will generally be close to
just above climatological norms. Highs each day will be in the mid
80s to low 90s. Lows each night will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
However, the difference between NBM`s 25th and 75th percentiles for
max temperatures is about 15 degrees Saturday through Monday,
further highlighting the uncertainty and disagreement among the
guidance in the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak cold front approaches this eve and passes offshore Wed
mrng.

VFR late this aftn except for isold-sct tstms. A better chance
for more organized clusters of tstms aft 21Z into this eve.
There is still a little uncertainty with timing. As a result,
the prob30 was maintained. Main window attm however remains
22-02Z.

Areas of MVFR possible tngt, then improvement to VFR on Wed.
Chance for another round of tstms late Wed with a prob30 started
at 23Z.

High variability in wind direction thru the TAF period due to
proximity of the front and tstms. In general, a W-SW flow thru
today, becoming NW by Wed mrng, then shifting back to the S/SW
aft 18Z Wed.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Variability in wind direction expected this aftn and eve due to
position of the front and impacts of nearby tstms.

Still some uncertainty with exact timing and coverage of shwrs
and tstms. Main window for activity likely 22-02Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wed-Fri: Periods of shwrs and tstms possible. Mainly VFR
outside of shwrs and tstms.

Sat-Sun: Mainly VFR. A chance for aftn/eve shwrs and tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A diminishing SE swell will allow seas to diminish this evening.
SCAs continue form Fire Island Inlet through Montauk. The SCA from
Fire Island inlet to Moriches inlet may be need to be cancelled
within the next few hours. Otherwise, the SCAs are in effect until 2
am. Thereafter, with a weak pressure gradient, winds and waves stay
below SCA criteria through Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire area through 2
2am Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue this
evening and tonight have the potential to produce torrential
downpours with rainfall rates 1-2" an hour. It is quite possible
for a spots to exceed 2" an hour at times in the heaviest
activity. WPC has maintained a slight risk for excessive rain
across the entire area highlighting the mainly localized flash
flooding risk. A few of the quicker responding rivers, streams,
and creeks nay experience flash flooding.

A marginal risk of excessive rainfall remains in place for much of
the area on Wednesday and Thursday with a continued localized flash
flooding threat.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk at all ocean beaches into this
evening due to building surf to 4-5 ft and building SE swell.
The risk remains high on Wednesday due to the linger SE swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
     Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
     078>080-176>179.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ078>081-
     177-179.
     Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-078>081-
     176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/BR
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JP/BR
HYDROLOGY...JP/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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